CAROLINA CRISIS: THIS IS BIGGER THAN YOU By Michael...
Bet on Serena and Djokovic Against The Field
Men Tennis, it is normally the big four of Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Rafal Nadal against the rest of the field but with the loss by Nadal in round one and Federer in round two, it is a certainty that a dark horse can make a run at the Wimbledon or at least to the semi-finals before meeting with Djokovic, or Murray. Since 2003, no one other than Nadal, Federer and Djokovic has won at Wimbledon. Only Marat Safin has managed to break the top three strangle hold at the Australian Open since 2004 and since 2005, the French Open has essentially been Rafal Nadal private tournament with only Roger Federer winning over the past nine French Opens. Only Juan Del Porto has won the US Open other than the big four. (Of course, it could be argued that since Murray has won only one major, it could easily be classified as the big 3 and half.) The reality is since 2004, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer has won every Tennis major but three and one of those three belong to Murray, who has crashed into the elite status. There are other men who can make run but the problems that come to bear is as the tournament reaches into the second week, you have to eventually beat two of these elite players to win Wimbledon.
By time day three rolled around, two of the big four were gone and one of the biggest threat as a dark horse, Jo Wilfried Tsonga joined Federer and Nadal to the sideline. So the field now have only two of the top four and suddenly there is hope that someone other than Djokovic, Federer and Nadal being in the final or even winning Wimbledon. If anything, Djokovic and Murray have a clearer path to a final confrontation. A dark horse still has to beat two of the top four to win Wimbledon and the odds is against the field. I like Djokovic to win his six major but don’t be surprise if Andy Murray becomes the first Brit since the 1930’s to win the Open!
As for the women, it is Serena against the field with the odds better favoring the field since you only have to beat Serena and the odds of Serena having a bad day are greater than let say, Murray and Djokovic having bad games. ( Of course, two of the big four have had their bad game and have left Wimbledon.) Williams is the favorite since she has won three of the last four majors with a semifinal loss in the Australian Open to Sloane Stephens the only blemish. (That loss was on a gimpy ankle, showing that Williams on one leg is a dangerous competitor.) The way Williams is playing and with Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova leaving the field after the first two rounds; those players capable of beating Williams are dwindling.
Of the women who could pull off the upset, Tennis writer Beth Donelson notes, “Laura Robson, from Great Britain,raised in Wimbledon Village and won the juniors here when she was 14.has a power game and upset Maria Kirlenko, the 10th seed today. She has a pretty manageable draw and could meet Serena in the quarters. All of England will be up for that. Maybe having an entire nation rooting against Serena will be enough to rattle her but I doubt it.”
Serena Williams is set to win her fourth majors in her last five appearances and a second straight Wimbledon. Bet on Serena against the field.